65 BEST Tips Fantasy Football Breakout Candidates (Truth)

Fantasy Football Breakout Candidates - My Very Subjective, Personal Opinion:

Fantasy Football Breakout Candidates - Full Picture:

Fantasy football is a thrilling blend of strategy, analysis, and a bit of forecasting skill. Whether you're an experienced manager or a newcomer, identifying breakout candidates can be the key to dominating your league. Breakout players are those who far exceed expectations in a given season, offering incredible value for where they were drafted. This article dives deep into the many angles of analyzing breakout candidates, offering expert insights to help you stay ahead of the curve.

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What Defines a Fantasy Football Breakout Candidate?

Understanding the term "breakout"

A breakout player is someone who dramatically improves their production compared to previous seasons. These players often come at a discount in drafts due to their unclear upside or lack of past production. A breakout isn’t always about raw talent—context, opportunity, and game plans also play significant roles.

Factors contributing to a breakout

Several elements go into making someone a potential breakout candidate.

These factors include:

• Opportunity – Teams often lean on younger or less proven players when holes or retirements occur in the roster.

• Improved surroundings – This may include a better quarterback, improved offensive line, or an evolving offensive scheme.

• Talent meeting readiness – Players entering their third or fourth NFL season are often primed for growth after learning the professional game.

The Role of Statistical Analysis in Identifying Breakouts

Advanced stats that matter

When identifying potential breakout players, fantasy managers should dig deeper than just points per game.

Metrics such as:

• Target share and air yards for wide receivers and tight ends.

• Yards after contact and touches per game for running backs.

• Quarterback efficiency stats, including completion percentage over expected (CPOE), are critical for passers.

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For instance, if a wide receiver racked up a significant percentage of his team’s air yards and had poor quarterback play, he could potentially explode with a better QB in the next season.

Historical trends in player performance

Looking back at past seasons can provide a blueprint for spotting the next big breakout. Many breakout players, like 2022's breakout star Garrett Wilson, shared common characteristics like high target volume and strong college production.

Player Potential and Team Dynamics

Young players stepping up

Rookies and second-year players are often fantastic options for breakout predictions. They’re getting acclimated to the NFL and often see their roles expand after a year of development. For example:

• Chris Olave (2022) was a second-year wide receiver who broke out due to increased involvement in New Orleans' offense.

• Najee Harris (2021) emerged as a bell-cow back in Pittsburgh, showing how increased opportunity fuels breakouts.

Emerging opportunities due to team changes

A coaching shift, a major trade, or a positional void can create breakout-ready players. Think of situations like when DeAndre Hopkins was suspended in 2022—Marquise Brown saw a surge in targets early in the season.

Players positioned to thrive often have:

• Vacated targets (or touches) on their team.

• A more significant role due to injury or free-agent departures.

• A new offensive coordinator known for maximizing potential.

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The Impact of Coaching Changes

Offensive schemes shape fantasy production

Offensive coordinators and head coaches play huge roles in determining the value of their players in fantasy. A pass-heavy system can be a boon for wide receivers and quarterbacks, while a run-first mindset elevates running backs.

For example:

• Doug Pederson's arrival in Jacksonville saw Trevor Lawrence make strides as a second-year quarterback in 2022.

• Kevin O'Connell in Minnesota unlocked Justin Jefferson’s upside with a pass-friendly scheme.

Coaching changes to monitor

Fantasy managers should be aware of coaching changes that could drastically alter the breakout potential of players. A coach with a history of favoring young talent or introducing creative play-calling is worth paying attention to.

Past Success Stories of Breakout Players

The "Third-Year Wide Receiver Rule"

This rule suggests that wide receivers often see significant growth in production during their third year in the league.

Past examples:

• Calvin Ridley (2019) in his third season with the Falcons emerged as one of fantasy's most reliable targets.

• Terry McLaurin's 2021 season, which saw him flirt with WR1 territory.

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One-hit wonders vs. continued relevance

Not every breakout player sustains their production beyond one season. However, some players remain fantasy gold year after year after breaking out. Examples include:

• Cooper Kupp (2021) – He broke out in a historic way and remains a fantasy powerhouse.

• Josh Allen (2020) – His leap as a passer made him the QB1 and changed league strategies on drafting young QBs.

How Injuries Shape Breakout Opportunities

Injuries can create openings

While it’s never ideal to capitalize on injuries, in the fantasy world, “next-man-up” scenarios are crucial to monitor. Players who unexpectedly step into starting roles due to injuries often break out.

Think:

• Justin Herbert (2020), who became a rookie sensation after Tyrod Taylor’s injury.

• Tony Pollard (2022), who thrived when the Cowboys shifted away from Ezekiel Elliott.

Injury recoveries for potential bounce-backs

On the flip side, talented players returning from injuries can emerge as breakout stars. Monitoring offseason reports and preseason performance can help pinpoint these rebound candidates.

Predictions for the 2023 Breakout Stars

Running backs to watch

• Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos – Returning from injury with a new offensive-minded head coach, Sean Payton, he could become a workhorse.

• James Cook, Buffalo Bills – With Devin Singletary gone, Cook has the chance to command more touches in a high-powered offense.

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Wide receivers who could shine

• Drake London, Atlanta Falcons – London flashed elite ability as a rookie and could take a big leap with better quarterback play.

• Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers – After an explosive rookie season, Watson has the keys to Green Bay's passing attack.

Quarterbacks to monitor

• Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Steelers – Entering his second season with improved weapons, Pickett has upside in a maturing offense.

• Desmond Ridder, Atlanta Falcons – With Drake London and Kyle Pitts, plus a strong run game, he has sleeper potential.

Tight end sleepers

• Chigoziem Okonkwo, Tennessee Titans – Okonkwo showed flashes in 2022 and could be set for a larger role in 2023.

• Greg Dulcich, Denver Broncos – Russell Wilson’s security blanket in 2022 should shine further with Sean Payton calling plays.

Final Tips for Spotting Breakout Candidates

Red flags to avoid

While chasing breakout potential is fun, there are risks. Be cautious with:

• Players stuck in crowded position groups.

• High expectations for rookies without a clear role.

• Overhyping offseason workout videos with no context.

Trust the process

Ultimately, spotting breakout candidates involves combining data, opportunity, and gut instincts. Keep a close eye on preseason depth charts, usage in practice games, and reports of rapport with quarterbacks.

By doing the homework and staying proactive, fantasy football managers can consistently find sleeper picks who turn into league-winners. Go into your next draft fully prepared and ready to dominate!

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FAQs (Frequently Asked Questions)

1. What is a fantasy football breakout candidate?

A breakout candidate is a player who is expected to significantly exceed their previous production, offering great value for their draft position. These players often step into larger roles or improve their performance after a period of development.

2. How can I identify breakout candidates?

Look for players with increased opportunities, favorable team dynamics, or improved surroundings like better coaching or quarterback play. Additionally, advanced metrics like target share or yards per carry can help spot potential breakouts.

3. Do breakout players have specific trends?

Yes, many breakout players share trends like entering their second or third NFL season, stepping into vacated targets or touches, or benefiting from a coaching change that favors their skill set.

4. Why do third-year wide receivers often break out?

Wide receivers entering their third year often have a better understanding of the game and their team’s system. They also tend to earn more trust from coaches and quarterbacks, leading to increased targets and production.

5. How much does a coaching change impact breakout potential?

Coaching changes can play a significant role in breakouts. Coaches with creative play-calling or schemes that maximize talent often elevate players. For example, Doug Pederson unlocked Trevor Lawrence’s potential in Jacksonville.

6. Should I target rookies as breakout candidates?

Rookies can break out, but it’s less predictable. Prioritize rookies who are stepping into clear starting roles or on teams with few established options at their position.

7. Which positions are most likely to produce a breakout?

Wide receivers and running backs are the most common positions for breakouts due to the volume of targets and carries they can accumulate. However, quarterbacks and tight ends can also surprise in the right circumstances.

8. How do injuries affect breakout candidates?

An injury to a teammate can create opportunities for a less established player to ascend into a starting role. Monitoring team depth charts and injury reports helps identify these situations.

9. What are red flags when targeting breakout candidates?

Red flags include crowded position groups, poor offensive schemes, or limited historical production. Be cautious with players hyped solely due to impressive preseason performances or workout videos.

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10. Can past breakout performances help identify future candidates?

Yes, analyzing past breakouts can highlight similar situations for current players. For instance, breakouts often occur when a player receives a significant increase in opportunities or target share.

11. How important is a player’s talent for a breakout?

Talent is key but not the only factor. Opportunity, team dynamics, and coaching often determine whether a player’s talent can translate into a fantasy breakout.

12. Are there advanced stats that help spot breakout candidates?

Yes, advanced metrics like air yards, target share, yards after contact, and completion percentage over expected (for quarterbacks) can uncover players primed for breakouts.

13. How do team vacated targets or touches impact breakouts?

When a team loses players—through trades, injuries, or free agency—it creates vacated targets or touches that remaining players can absorb, increasing their chances to break out.

14. Can backups become breakout stars?

Absolutely, backups often emerge as breakout stars when given an opportunity due to injuries or other roster changes. Tony Pollard's rise in Dallas is a great example.

15. What role does quarterback play have in a breakout?

A good quarterback can elevate a breakout candidate, especially for pass-catchers. Improved quarterback play can lead to more accurate throws, increased targets, and higher-scoring opportunities.

16. Is draft position important for identifying breakout candidates?

Yes, breakout players often offer the best value in later rounds of the draft. Managers should look for mid-to-late-round picks who have a path to an expanded role.

17. Can a player breakout in a bad offense?

While difficult, breakouts in bad offenses can happen if the player commands a dominant share of the team's volume (e.g., targets, carries). However, a strong offense provides a better overall environment for breakouts.

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18. Do returning players from injury qualify as breakout candidates?

Yes, players returning from injuries often fly under the radar but can break out if they regain form in an enhanced role. This is especially true if their recovery aligns with increased team opportunities.

19. What are some famous examples of fantasy football breakouts?

Examples include Cooper Kupp in 2021 when he led all fantasy scorers and Justin Herbert in 2020 when he stepped in for an injured Tyrod Taylor to become an elite QB option.

20. How do college performances relate to breakouts?

Strong college performances indicate potential, but a player’s role, team situation, and adaptation to the NFL often matter more in determining a breakout at the pro level.

21. Should I draft purely for upside when looking for breakouts?

While upside is important, balance is key. You should mix steady producers with high-upside breakout candidates to stabilize your fantasy roster.

22. Can tight ends be reliable breakout candidates?

Yes, tight ends with increased usage or located in tight-end-friendly offenses can break out. Players like Mark Andrews in 2019 showed how valuable this position can become.

23. Do offseason moves affect breakout potential?

Significant offseason moves—like trades, free-agent signings, or coaching changes—can create breakout opportunities when roles shift or players find themselves in favorable conditions.

24. How can preseason games help identify potential breakouts?

Preseason games provide insight into usage, snap counts, and chemistry between players. Monitor which players are running with the first team or seeing high volumes of targets.

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25. Is a player’s role more important than their talent?

Both are important, but role often determines immediate fantasy success. A highly talented player with few opportunities may not produce, while an average player in a strong role could break out.

26. How do you monitor potential breakout candidates during the season?

Keep an eye on depth charts, player usage, snap counts, and team injuries to identify candidates rising in prominence as the season progresses.

27. Can high draft picks still break out?

Yes, high draft picks can break out if they significantly exceed expectations. However, breakouts are more valuable when they come from players drafted in the middle or late rounds.

28. Are smaller, undervalued market teams better for breakouts?

Sometimes. Smaller market teams may offer value as their players often fly under the radar due to less media attention, creating draft-day bargains for fantasy managers.

29. How do bye weeks affect breakout candidates?

Players who replace teammates during bye weeks can show breakout potential. Solid performances during these weeks often secure them an ongoing role in the lineup.

30. Are breakout candidates predictable every year?

Not entirely. While trends and data help forecast potential breakouts, surprising performances and unforeseen events like injuries or trades can create unexpected stars each season.

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