61 BEST Tips Fantasy Football Breakout QBs (Facts)

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Fantasy Football Breakout QBs - Full Picture:

Fantasy football success often hinges on identifying breakout players before they emerge as household names. Quarterbacks (QBs) hold a particularly special place in fantasy leagues due to their potential for high scoring, consistency, and leadership roles on offense. While drafting a proven QB often feels like the safe option, savvy managers know finding a breakout QB can prove to be a league-winning strategy. Below, we explore every angle necessary to uncover fantasy football's breakout QBs for the upcoming season.

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What Is a "Breakout" Quarterback?

Defining the Breakout

A "breakout" quarterback is one who exceeds expectations, drastically improving their fantasy output compared to previous performances. While some QBs debut on a high note, others gradually develop before exploding onto the scene. Breakout candidates are often associated with untapped potential, favorable situations, or unexpected opportunity.

Key Indicators of a Breakout Season

Several factors indicate that a QB might be poised to break out, such as:

• Increase in Passing Volume: A QB transitioning into a pass-heavy offense often benefits from raw stat boosts.

• Offensive Upgrades: Gaining elite receivers, an improved offensive line, or an offensive-minded coach can elevate a QB's play.

• Skill Development: Young QBs in their second or third seasons often make significant strides due to experience and maturity.

• Opportunity Shifts: Whether through injury to a starter, a trade, or midseason adjustments, QBs who receive unexpected starting roles have the chance to shine.

Historical Trends in Breakout QBs

The Year 2 and Year 3 Leap

Historical data reveals that quarterbacks typically hit their stride in their second or third year as starters. Patrick Mahomes in 2018 and Josh Allen in 2020 are prime examples. Both were relatively untested going into their breakout campaigns but capitalized on their talents in offenses tailored to their skill sets. When projecting future breakouts, prioritizing QBs in this developmental window can pay off.

Late-Blooming Veterans

Veterans shouldn't be ignored either. Signal-callers like Ryan Tannehill (2019) reinvented themselves after being written off by many. Veteran QBs breaking out tend to need a new environment, a high-quality supporting cast, or a coach that believes in them.

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Dual-Threat Impact

The rise of dual-threat QBs has revolutionized fantasy football. Lamar Jackson’s 2019 MVP campaign showcased how combining elite rushing yards with passing efficiency could lead to fantasy dominance. Players with rushing upside provide higher floors, even in off-days passing the ball. They are massive breakout candidates in the modern game.

Statistical Analysis to Spot Breakouts

Underlying Metrics and Their Importance

When scouting breakout QBs, advanced stats often tell a more insightful story than traditional metrics like touchdowns and passing yards. Here are a few critical stats to evaluate:

• Air Yards Per Attempt (AY/A): Reflects a QB’s aggressiveness and downfield efficiency. A high AY/A signals a willingness to throw deeper and take shots.

• Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE): Measures accuracy relative to expected performance. Rising CPOE is a strong indicator of skill progression.

• Rushing Attempts: For dual-threat QBs, a steady volume of designed runs or scrambling can signify higher consistency in fantasy points.

• Turnover-Worthy Plays (TWP): QBs who limit TWPs while maintaining high-volume production often take a step forward statistically.

Spotting Improvement Over Time

Statistical improvements toward the end of the previous season are often harbingers of a breakout. For example, Trevor Lawrence’s late-season surge in 2022 foreshadowed his rise as a top-tier fantasy QB in 2023.

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Potential Breakout Candidates for This Season

Young Stars Poised to Shine

• Justin Fields (Chicago Bears): Fields is the prototype of a dual-threat QB. With over 1,000 rushing yards in 2022 and new weapon D.J. Moore, many expect him to ascend as a passer while maintaining his ground-game prowess.

• Sam Howell (Washington Commanders): Howell enters the season with little fanfare but plenty of opportunity in Washington’s retooled offense. His arm talent and mobility could translate into fantasy relevance if given consistent starting reps.

• Jordan Love (Green Bay Packers): Love takes over for Aaron Rodgers, and while unproven, he finds himself surrounded by young, talented playmakers. His preseason flashes signal a possible breakout.

Veteran QBs with Upside

• Geno Smith (Seattle Seahawks): After surprising the league in 2022, Smith could sustain or even improve thanks to Seattle’s offensive weapons like DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

• Baker Mayfield (Tampa Bay Buccaneers): Though inconsistent in recent years, Mayfield has a chance to reinvigorate his career alongside Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. A weak NFC South also gives him sneaky upside.

Long Shots to Keep on Your Radar

• Desmond Ridder (Atlanta Falcons): Second-year QB Ridder steps into a starting role and benefits from a ground-heavy offense anchored by Bijan Robinson. If he builds rapport with weapons like Drake London and Kyle Pitts, he could surprise.

• Anthony Richardson (Indianapolis Colts): The rookie has elite athleticism and rushing ability, making him a high-risk, high-reward pick.

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The Role of Coaching and Scheme

Offensive Coordinators as Catalysts

Many QBs owe their breakouts to the schemes and systems of creative offensive coordinators. Sean McVay's influence on Jared Goff and Kyle Shanahan’s shaping of Jimmy Garoppolo highlight how coaching is often the X-factor. Identifying a team with a newly hired offensive-minded coach can uncover breakout candidates. Watch for teams introducing modern, QB-friendly systems.

Supporting Cast

No QB exists in a vacuum. The true recipe for a breakout season is a supporting cast capable of elevating the signal-caller. When scouting breakout QBs, evaluate their receiving options, offensive line stability, and rushing attack.

Risk Management and Draft Strategy

Taking Smart Risks

Fantasy players often hesitate to roster unproven QBs due to the inherent unpredictability. However, breakout QBs present excellent value for those willing to take the leap. Targeting these players late in drafts or as backups reduces risk while offering massive upside.

Drafting Strategies

Consider employing these strategies during drafts:

• Late-Round QBs: Filled your key skill positions? Target breakout QBs in the later rounds.

• Streaming Potential: Focus on QBs with favorable early-season schedules who can be streamed in ideal matchups.

• QB Handcuffs: If drafting a higher-risk QB, add a reliable veteran for insurance in case things don't pan out.

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Tips from Fantasy Experts

• Matthew Berry (Industry Veteran): Berry advises focusing on QBs poised for increased fantasy volume due to team situation changes.

• JJ Zachariason (Late-Round QB Expert): JJ emphasizes value shopping in later rounds while targeting dual-threat QBs as high-upside lottery tickets.

• Field Yates: Yates recommends monitoring training camp buzz to spot new offensive roles and schemes that indicate breakout potential.

FAQs (Frequently Asked Questions)

What is a breakout QB in fantasy football?

A breakout QB is a quarterback who significantly outperforms expectations, increasing their fantasy production compared to prior seasons. These players are often undervalued at the start of the season but rise to prominence due to improved skills, opportunity, or team dynamics.

Why are breakout QBs important in fantasy football?

Breakout QBs offer exceptional value since they can be acquired late in drafts or at a low cost but deliver high-level production. They’re often the key to building a balanced roster with elite players at other positions.

When do quarterbacks typically break out in their careers?

QBs often break out in their second or third season as starters when they’ve had a chance to develop their skills and adjust to the NFL. However, veterans in new systems or situations can also break out unexpectedly.

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How can I identify a potential breakout QB before the season starts?

Look for young QBs with upward trends in their stats, changes in their team’s offensive line, receiving corps upgrades, or a new offensive-minded coach. Rushing ability is another major predictor of fantasy success.

Are dual-threat QBs more likely to break out as fantasy stars?

Yes, dual-threat QBs who contribute both as passers and runners have a higher floor and ceiling in fantasy football, making them more likely to achieve breakout status.

What role does coaching play in a QB breaking out?

Coaching is crucial. Offensive-minded coaches or new coordinators can design schemes tailored to a QB’s strengths, enabling them to flourish. Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan are examples of coaches who have elevated QBs’ performances.

Should I prioritize veteran QBs over younger options when seeking breakouts?

Both have breakout potential, but the approach depends on the QB’s situation. Younger QBs in Year 2 or 3 often have more upside, while veterans need the right environment to have a resurgence.

Which statistics are key indicators that a QB might break out?

Advanced metrics like Air Yards Per Attempt (AY/A), Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), and Turnover-Worthy Plays (TWP) are strong predictors. Rising rushing attempts and end-of-season improvements also signal potential breakouts.

Are there any red flags to avoid when targeting a breakout QB?

Yes, avoid QBs in stagnant offenses with poor supporting casts, weak offensive lines, or coaching staff instability. High turnover rates without signs of improvement can also be concerning.

How should I adjust my draft strategy to include breakout QB candidates?

Target breakout QBs in later rounds or as backups. Focus on securing elite players at other positions first and then take a calculated risk with an unproven QB.

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Which recent breakout QBs can serve as examples?

Recent examples include Patrick Mahomes in 2018, Josh Allen in 2020, and Jalen Hurts in 2022. All exceeded preseason expectations thanks to a mix of skill growth and team support.

How does a team’s supporting cast affect a QB’s breakout chances?

The quality of the supporting cast, including wide receivers, tight ends, running backs, and offensive linemen, directly impacts a QB’s efficiency and chances of breaking out.

Are rookie QBs good bets for breakout seasons?

Rookie QBs can break out, but it's less common. They often face steep learning curves. However, dual-threat rookies or those in QB-friendly systems provide intriguing upside.

Is rushing ability necessary for a QB to break out?

Not necessary, but it certainly helps. Rushing QBs tend to score more consistently in fantasy due to their contributions on the ground, which provide bonus points even during average passing performances.

Which fantasy draft rounds are best for targeting breakout QBs?

Breakout QBs are often found in later rounds (Rounds 9-12 or later), where their potential upside far exceeds their draft cost.

Should I draft two QBs if I target a breakout candidate?

Yes, it's a smart strategy. Backup a high-risk breakout QB with a steady veteran to mitigate the risk if the breakout doesn’t materialize.

Do QBs on bad teams have breakout potential?

Yes, QBs on bad teams can break out if they are forced into high-volume passing situations or have rushing upside. Volume often translates to better fantasy production, even in losing efforts.

How important is a favorable schedule in predicting a breakout QB?

A favorable schedule can boost short-term fantasy production early in the season, which can fuel momentum for a breakout year. Look for QBs with soft defenses on their schedule.

Can preseason performances predict breakout QBs?

Preseason is a limited sample but can provide clues, especially for QBs competing for starting jobs or developing in new schemes. Monitor snaps and chemistry with key offensive players.

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Should I trade for a potential breakout QB midseason?

Yes, midseason trades for breakout QBs can be very rewarding, especially if the QB has shown consistency and their schedule remains favorable going forward.

Are QBs in contract years more likely to break out?

While not a guarantee, contract years often serve as motivation for players, leading to improved performances. Identify QBs pushing for lucrative extensions.

How do injuries to offensive teammates affect breakout potential?

Key injuries to the offensive line or skill positions can hurt a QB’s chances of breaking out. Conversely, backup QBs stepping in due to injury may emerge as surprise breakouts.

Which NFL teams tend to produce the most breakout QBs?

Teams with QB-friendly systems and strong offensive minds, like Kansas City Chiefs or San Francisco 49ers, tend to create breakout scenarios more frequently.

Can former first-round draft QBs in new situations break out?

Yes, QBs like Ryan Tannehill or Geno Smith proved this. Situation changes, like new teams or schemes, can revitalize a player’s career and turn them into fantasy studs.

How valuable are breakout QBs in superflex leagues?

Extremely valuable. In superflex leagues, where you can start two QBs, identifying a breakout QB can give you a significant edge without spending early draft capital.

What are the risks of drafting a breakout QB candidate too early?

Drafting too early often means passing on more reliable players. If the breakout doesn’t materialize, you may lose a top-tier spot on your roster.

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Should I drop a struggling breakout QB midseason?

Be patient, especially with QBs in promising situations. Many breakouts happen later in the season, following adjustments or favorable matchups.

How do bye weeks play into drafting breakout QBs?

Make sure to check your primary QB’s bye week and plan accordingly. A breakout QB can be a valuable backup or replacement during those off weeks.

Can mobile QBs with poor passing numbers still break out?

Yes, mobile QBs like Lamar Jackson can offset low passing stats with rushing yards and touchdowns, maintaining high fantasy floors and ceilings.

How do I follow updates on breakout QB candidates?

Stay informed by following training camp reports, preseason games, and expert analysis from trusted fantasy football sources. Early buzz often signals breakout potential.

What separates a fringe starter from a breakout QB candidate?

Consistency and opportunity are key factors. Fringe starters need regular playtime, positive trends in their performances, and strong team dynamics to break out.

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Conclusion

Finding a breakout QB can change the trajectory of your fantasy football season.

By applying historical trends, analyzing advanced stats, and keeping an eye on promising candidates, you can identify the next big thing at the position.

Don’t solely chase after elite QBs in the early rounds—trust your research, study situations, and be willing to take calculated risks.

That breakout QB might just be your ticket to fantasy glory.